Comparative Analysis of EMCEE, Gaussian Process, and Masked Autoregressive Flow in Constraining the Hubble Constant Using Cosmic Chronometers Dataset

Abstract: The Hubble constant ($\mathrm{H}0$) is essential for understanding the universe's evolution. Different methods, such as Affine Invariant Markov chain Monte Carlo Ensemble sampler (EMCEE), Gaussian Process (GP), and Masked Autoregressive Flow (MAF), are used to constrain $\mathrm{H}_0$ using $H(z)$ data. However, these methods produce varying $\mathrm{H}_0$ values when applied to the same dataset. To investigate these differences, we compare the methods based on their sensitivity to individual data points and their accuracy in constraining $\mathrm{H}_0$. We introduce Multiple Random Sampling Analysis (MRSA) to assess their sensitivity to individual data points. Our findings reveal that GP is more sensitive to individual data points than both MAF and EMCEE, with MAF being more sensitive than EMCEE. Sensitivity also depends on redshift: EMCEE and GP are more sensitive to $H(z)$ at higher redshifts, while MAF is more sensitive at lower redshifts. For accuracy assessment, we simulate $H{\mathrm{sim}}(z_{\mathrm{sim}})$ datasets with a prior $\mathrm{H}{\mathrm{0prior}}$. Comparing the constrained $\mathrm{H{0sim}}$ values with $\mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{0prior}}$ shows that EMCEE is the most accurate, followed by MAF, with GP being the least accurate, regardless of the simulation method.