Pósa rotation through a random permutation

Abstract: What minimum degree of a graph $G$ on $n$ vertices guarantees that the union of $G$ and a random $2$-factor (or permutation) is with high probability Hamiltonian? Gir~ao and Espuny D{\'\i}az showed that the answer lies in the interval $[\tfrac15 \log n, n^{3/4+o(1)}]$. We improve both the upper and lower bounds to resolve this problem asymptotically, showing that the answer is $(1+o(1))\sqrt{n\log n/2}$. Furthermore, if $G$ is assumed to be (nearly) regular then we obtain the much stronger bound that any degree growing at least polylogarithmically in $n$ is sufficient for Hamiltonicity. Our proofs use some insights from the rich theory of random permutations and a randomised version of the classical technique of P\'osa rotation adapted to multiple exposure arguments.