Epidemics on the Move: How Public Transport Demand and Capacity Shape Disease Spread

Abstract: Understanding the dynamics of passenger interactions and their epidemiological impact throughout public transportation systems is crucial for both service efficiency and public health. High passenger density and close physical proximity has been shown to accelerate the spread of infectious diseases. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many public transportation companies took measures to slow down and minimize disease spreading. One of these measures was introducing spacing and capacity constraints to public transit vehicles. Our objective is to explore the effects of demand changes and transportation measures from an epidemiological point of view, offering alternative measures to public transportation companies to keep the system alive while minimizing the epidemiological risk as much as possible.