Personalized Interpolation: An Efficient Method to Tame Flexible Optimization Window Estimation

Abstract: In the realm of online advertising, optimizing conversions is crucial for delivering relevant products to users and enhancing business outcomes. Predicting conversion events is challenging due to variable delays between user interactions, such as impressions or clicks, and the actual conversions. These delays differ significantly across various advertisers and products, necessitating distinct optimization time windows for targeted conversions. To address this, we introduce a novel approach named the \textit{Personalized Interpolation} method, which innovatively builds upon existing fixed conversion window models to estimate flexible conversion windows. This method allows for the accurate estimation of conversions across a variety of delay ranges, thus meeting the diverse needs of advertisers without increasing system complexity. To validate the efficacy of our proposed method, we conducted comprehensive experiments using ads conversion model. Our experiments demonstrate that this method not only achieves high prediction accuracy but also does so more efficiently than other existing solutions. This validation underscores the potential of our Personalized Interpolation method to significantly enhance conversion optimization in real-world online advertising systems, promising improved targeting and effectiveness in advertising strategies.