Re-examining Granger Causality from Causal Bayesian Networks Perspective

Abstract: Characterizing cause-effect relationships in complex systems could be critical to understanding these systems. For many, Granger causality (GC) remains a computational tool of choice to identify causal relations in time series data. Like other causal discovery tools, GC has limitations and has been criticized as a non-causal framework. Here, we addressed one of the recurring criticisms of GC by endowing it with proper causal interpretation. This was achieved by analyzing GC from Reichenbach's Common Cause Principles (RCCPs) and causal Bayesian networks (CBNs) lenses. We showed theoretically and graphically that this reformulation endowed GC with a proper causal interpretation under certain assumptions and achieved satisfactory results on simulation.