Assessing the viability of non-light water reactor concepts for electricity and heat generation in decarbonized energy systems

Abstract: Recent pledges to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050 suggest a "nuclear renaissance," bolstered by reactor concepts such as sodium-cooled fast reactors, high-temperature reactors, and molten salt reactors. These technologies claim to address the challenges of today's high-capacity light-water reactors, i.e., cost overruns, delays, and social acceptance, while also offering additional non-electrical applications. However, this analysis reveals that none of these concepts currently meet the prerequisites of affordability, competitiveness, or commercial availability. We omit social acceptability. The cost analysis reveals optimistic FOAK cost assumptions of 5,623 to 9,511 USD per kW, and NOAK cost projections as low as 1,476 USD per kW. At FOAK cost, the applied energy system model includes no nuclear power capacity, and thus indicates that significant cost reductions would be required for these technologies to contribute to energy system decarbonization. In low-cost scenarios, reactors capable of producing high temperature heat become competitive with other low-carbon technologies. We conclude that, for reactor capacties to increase significantly, a focus on certain technology lines ist necessary. However, until a concept becomes viable and commercially available, policymakers should prioritize existing technologies to decarbonize energy systems.