A New Rarity Assessment of the `Disk of Satellites': the Milky Way System Is the Exception Rather than the Rule in the $Λ$CDM Cosmology

Abstract: The majority of satellite galaxies around the Milky Way (MW) show disk-like distributions (the disk of satellites; DoS), which is a small-scale problem of the $\Lambda$CDM cosmology. The conventional definition of the MW-like DoS is a satellite system with a minor-to-major axis ratio ($c$/$a$) lower than the MW's $c$/$a$ value of 0.181. Here we question the validity of the $c$/$a$-based DoS rarity assessment and propose an alternative approach. How satellites are placed around a galaxy is dictated mainly by two factors: the distributions of satellites' orbital poles and distances from the host. Based on this premise, we construct the satellite distribution generator' code and generate 10$^5$spatially and kinematically analogous systems (SKASs)' sharing these two factors. The SKAS can disclose the intrinsic, underlying $c$/$a$ probability distribution function (PDF), from which a present-day $c$/$a$ value is fortuitously determined. We find that the $c$/$a$ PDF of the MW DoS defined by 11 classical satellites is quite broad ($\sigma_{c/a}$$\sim$0.105), implying that a simple present-day $c$/$a$ value, combined with its highly time-variable nature, cannot fully represent the degree of flatness. Moreover, based on the intrinsic $c$/$a$ PDF, we re-evaluate the rarity of the MW DoS by comparing it with IllustrisTNG50-1 host-satellite systems and find that even with the new measure, the MW DoS remains rare (0.00$\sim$3.40%). We show that the reason behind the rareness is that both orbital poles and distances of the 11 MW satellites are far more plane-friendly than those of simulated host-satellite systems, challenging the current structure and galaxy formation model.