Assessing Electricity Network Capacity Requirements for Industrial Decarbonisation in Great Britain

Abstract: Decarbonising the industrial sector is vital to reach net zero targets. The deployment of industrial decarbonisation technologies is expected to increase industrial electricity demand in many countries and this may require upgrades to the existing electricity network or new network investment. While the infrastructure requirements to support the introduction of new fuels and technologies in industry, such as hydrogen and carbon capture, utilisation and storage are often discussed, the need for investment to increase the capacity of the electricity network to meet increasing industrial electricity demands is often overlooked in the literature. This paper addresses this gap by quantifying the requirements for additional electricity network capacity to support the decarbonisation of industrial sectors across Great Britain (GB). The Net Zero Industrial Pathways model is used to predict the future electricity demand from industrial sites to 2050 which is then compared spatially to the available headroom across the distribution network in GB. The results show that network headroom is sufficient to meet extra capacity demands from industrial sites over the period to 2030 in nearly all GB regions and network scenarios. However, as electricity demand rises due to increased electrification across all sectors and industrial decarbonisation accelerates towards 2050, the network will need significant new capacity (71 GW + by 2050) particularly in the central, south, and north-west regions of England, and Wales. Without solving these network constraints, around 65% of industrial sites that are large point sources of emissions would be constrained in terms of electric capacity by 2040. These sites are responsible for 69% of industrial point source emissions.

• The paper employs a quantitative NZIP model analysis to project GB industrial demand, identifying a potential 71 GW capacity shortfall by 2050.
• Results show that existing grid headroom meets demand only until 2030, with 65% of large industrial sites likely constrained by 2040.
• Spatial optimization techniques using the Haversine formula link industrial sites to substations, informing policy for equitable grid upgrades.

Assessing Electricity Network Capacity Requirements for Industrial Decarbonisation in Great Britain

This paper employs a detailed quantitative analysis to evaluate the electricity network capacity necessary to support industrial decarbonization efforts in Great Britain (GB). Utilizing the Net Zero Industrial Pathways (NZIP) model, the study projects future electricity demand from industrial sites through 2050, offering a spatial comparison with the available headroom in GB's distribution network. The research identifies a critical gap in the current literature concerning the infrastructural investments required to accommodate rising electricity demands, driven by industrial decarbonization.

Key Findings and Numerical Results

The research findings indicate that existing network headroom can adequately meet increased capacity demands from industrial sites only until 2030 across most GB regions and network scenarios. However, as electricity demand continues to surge—on account of both industrial electrification and broader sector electrification—the study projects the necessity of substantial new capacity, totaling an additional 71 GW by 2050, primarily in England's central, south, and north-west regions, and in Wales.

Significantly, without addressing these network constraints, an estimated 65% of large point-source industrial sites could be capacity-constrained by 2040, representing approximately 69% of industrial point-source emissions. The network constraints predominantly impact non-clustered, dispersed sites, posing potential challenges for achieving equitable regional decarbonization.

Methodological Approach

The paper implements a comprehensive methodological framework that includes spatial optimization techniques to link industrial sites with the nearest electricity substations. A Haversine formula-based approach calculates geographical proximities, optimizing substation allocations based on available capacities. Analysis distinguishes between industrial sites categorized as large point-sources and smaller non-point sources, evaluating their respective network impacts under various scenarios.

The research methodically assesses scenarios such as 'Falling Short,' 'Consumer Transformation,' and 'Leading The Way,' representing varying assumptions on the pace and scale of decarbonization. The NZIP model further disaggregates data by region, enabling a detailed understanding of spatial constraints and opportunities.

Implications for Policy and Practice

This research underscores the vital need for timely investments in expanding GB's electrical network capacity. A projected future electricity demand surge—arising from industrial sector requirements coupled with broader electrification efforts in transport and heating—points to a high-level prioritization for network upgrades. These insights have immediate bearings on policy articulation, particularly regarding the recently announced UK Strategic Spatial Energy Plan and the imperative to address grid connection challenges.

From a theoretical standpoint, the findings suggest an urgent requirement for models influencing policy to incorporate infrastructure constraints explicitly when determining sector decarbonization pathways. Further reinforcing this, the study hints at potential imbalances in regional industrial development unless network capacity strategies are equitably applied, mitigating socio-economic disparities that may arise from industrial relocations.

Future Research Directions

The integration of power network dynamics such as power flow or economic dispatch remains unexplored within this paper’s scope. Future research could focus on these areas alongside the utility of on-site generation as a complementary strategy to alleviate network constraints. As industrial decarbonization continues to progress, further granularity in energy modeling will provide enhanced decision-making insights, crucial for achieving net-zero targets.

In conclusion, while the study adeptly captures the pressing need for investment in electricity network capacity to facilitate industrial decarbonization, its success will hinge on collaborative efforts across stakeholders to ensure strategic and inclusive implementations tailored to diverse regional requirements.