DFT: A Dual-branch Framework of Fluctuation and Trend for Stock Price Prediction (2411.06065v1)

Abstract: Stock price prediction is of significant importance in quantitative investment. Existing approaches encounter two primary issues: First, they often overlook the crucial role of capturing short-term stock fluctuations for predicting high-volatility returns. Second, mainstream methods, relying on graphs or attention mechanisms, inadequately explore the temporal relationships among stocks, often blurring distinctions in their characteristics over time and the causal relationships before and after. However, the high volatility of stocks and the intricate market correlations are crucial to accurately predicting stock prices. To address these challenges, we propose a Dual-branch Framework of Fluctuation and Trend (DFT), which decomposes stocks into trend and fluctuation components. By employing a carefully design decomposition module, DFT effectively extracts short-term fluctuations and trend information from stocks while explicitly modeling temporal variations and causal correlations. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that DFT outperforms existing methods across multiple metrics, including a 300% improvement in ranking metrics and a 400% improvement in portfolio-based indicators. Through detailed experiments, we provide valuable insights into different roles of trends and fluctuations in stock price prediction.