Systemic Decarbonization of Road Freight Transport: A Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Model

Abstract: The decarbonization of road freight transport is crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and achieving climate neutrality goals. This study develops a comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) model to evaluate the economic viability and strategic pathways for decarbonizing road freight transport. The model integrates vehicles with infrastructures, encompassing costs associated with acquisition, operation, maintenance, energy consumption, environmental impacts, and end-of-life considerations. Our analysis covers medium- and heavy-duty vehicles across eight powertrain types, with variants on battery sizes and fuel cell powers, incorporating key financial parameters, technological advancements, and policy incentives. Data sources include real-world fleet data and costs gathered from expert interviews, cross-referenced with multiple public resources. Findings indicate that zero-emission and near-zero-emission vehicles, though currently more expensive, will become cost-competitive with diesel vehicles by leveraging advancements in battery, fuel cell, and hydrogen technologies.