Robust Time Series Causal Discovery for Agent-Based Model Validation

Abstract: Agent-Based Model (ABM) validation is crucial as it helps ensuring the reliability of simulations, and causal discovery has become a powerful tool in this context. However, current causal discovery methods often face accuracy and robustness challenges when applied to complex and noisy time series data, which is typical in ABM scenarios. This study addresses these issues by proposing a Robust Cross-Validation (RCV) approach to enhance causal structure learning for ABM validation. We develop RCV-VarLiNGAM and RCV-PCMCI, novel extensions of two prominent causal discovery algorithms. These aim to reduce the impact of noise better and give more reliable causal relation results, even with high-dimensional, time-dependent data. The proposed approach is then integrated into an enhanced ABM validation framework, which is designed to handle diverse data and model structures. The approach is evaluated using synthetic datasets and a complex simulated fMRI dataset. The results demonstrate greater reliability in causal structure identification. The study examines how various characteristics of datasets affect the performance of established causal discovery methods. These characteristics include linearity, noise distribution, stationarity, and causal structure density. This analysis is then extended to the RCV method to see how it compares in these different situations. This examination helps confirm whether the results are consistent with existing literature and also reveals the strengths and weaknesses of the novel approaches. By tackling key methodological challenges, the study aims to enhance ABM validation with a more resilient valuation framework presented. These improvements increase the reliability of model-driven decision making processes in complex systems analysis.