A time warping model for seasonal data with application to age estimation from narwhal tusks

Abstract: Signals with varying periodicity frequently appear in real-world phenomena, necessitating the development of efficient modelling techniques to map the measured nonlinear timeline to linear time. Here we propose a regression model that allows for a representation of periodic and dynamic patterns observed in time series data. The model incorporates a hidden strictly increasing stochastic process that represents the instantaneous frequency, allowing the model to adapt and accurately capture varying time scales. A case study focusing on age estimation of narwhal tusks is presented, where cyclic element signals associated with annual growth layer groups are analyzed. We apply the methodology to data from one such tusk collected in West Greenland and use the fitted model to estimate the age of the narwhal. The proposed method is validated using simulated signals with known cycle counts and practical considerations and modelling challenges are discussed in detail. This research contributes to the field of time series analysis, providing a tool and valuable insights for understanding and modeling complex cyclic patterns in diverse domains.