NFTracer: Tracing NFT Impact Dynamics in Transaction-flow Substitutive Systems with Visual Analytics

Abstract: Impact dynamics are crucial for estimating the growth patterns of NFT projects by tracking the diffusion and decay of their relative appeal among stakeholders. Machine learning methods for impact dynamics analysis are incomprehensible and rigid in terms of their interpretability and transparency, whilst stakeholders require interactive tools for informed decision-making. Nevertheless, developing such a tool is challenging due to the substantial, heterogeneous NFT transaction data and the requirements for flexible, customized interactions. To this end, we integrate intuitive visualizations to unveil the impact dynamics of NFT projects. We first conduct a formative study and summarize analysis criteria, including substitution mechanisms, impact attributes, and design requirements from stakeholders. Next, we propose the Minimal Substitution Model to simulate substitutive systems of NFT projects that can be feasibly represented as node-link graphs. Particularly, we utilize attribute-aware techniques to embed the project status and stakeholder behaviors in the layout design. Accordingly, we develop a multi-view visual analytics system, namely NFTracer, allowing interactive analysis of impact dynamics in NFT transactions. We demonstrate the informativeness, effectiveness, and usability of NFTracer by performing two case studies with domain experts and one user study with stakeholders. The studies suggest that NFT projects featuring a higher degree of similarity are more likely to substitute each other. The impact of NFT projects within substitutive systems is contingent upon the degree of stakeholders' influx and projects' freshness.