Coalescence Probabilities of Cycle Products

Abstract: Generalizing a formula of Stanley, we prove combinatorially that the probability that $1, 2, \dots, k$ are contained in the same cycle of a product of two random $n$-cycles is [\frac{1}{k} + \frac{4 (-1)^n}{ \binom{2k}{k}} \sum_{\substack{1 \leq i \leq k-1 \ i \not\equiv n \bmod 2}} \binom{2k-1}{k+i} \left(\frac{1}{n+i+1} - \frac{1}{n-i}\right).]