Effects of the Plan Vélo I and II on vehicular flow in Paris -- An Empirical Analysis

Abstract: In recent years, Paris, France, transformed its transportation infrastructure, marked by a notable reallocation of space away from cars to active modes of transportation. Key initiatives driving this transformation included Plan V\'elo I and II, during which the city created over 1,000 kilometres of new bike paths to encourage cycling. For this, substantial road capacity has been removed from the system. This transformation provides a unique opportunity to investigate the impact of the large-scale network re-configuration on the network-wide traffic flow. Using the Network Fundamental Diagram (NFD) and a re-sampling methodology for its estimation, we investigate with empirical loop detector data from 2010 and 2023 the impact on the network's capacity, critical density, and free-flow speed resulting from these policy interventions. We find that in the urban core with the most policy interventions, per lane capacity decreased by over 50%, accompanied by a 60% drop in free-flow speed. Similarly, in the zone with fewer interventions, capacity declined by 34%, with a 40% reduction in free-flow speed. While these changes seem substantial, the NFDs show that overall congestion did not increase, indicating a modal shift to other modes of transport and hence presumably more sustainable urban mobility.