Detecting exoplanet transits with the next generation of X-ray telescopes

Abstract: Detecting exoplanet transits at X-ray wavelengths would provide a window into the effects of high energy irradiation on the upper atmospheres of planets. However, stars are relatively dim in the X-ray, making exoplanet transit detections difficult with current X-ray telescopes. To date, only one exoplanet (HD~189733~b) has an X-ray transit detection. In this study, we investigate the capability of future X-ray observatories to detect more exoplanet transits, focusing on both the NewAthena-WFI instrument and the proposed Advanced X-ray Imaging Satellite (AXIS), which provide more light-collecting power than current instruments. We examined all the transiting exoplanet systems in the NASA Exoplanet Archive and gathered X-ray flux measurements or estimates for each host star. We then predicted the stellar count rates for both AXIS and NewAthena and simulated light curves, using null-hypothesis testing to identify the top 15 transiting planets ranked by potential detection significance. We also evaluate transit detection probabilities when the apparent X-ray radius is enlarged due to atmospheric escape, finding that $\geq 5$ of these planetary systems may be detectable on the $>4\sigma$ level in this scenario. Finally, we note that the assumed host star coronal temperature, which affects the shape of an X-ray transit, can also significantly affect our ability to detect the planet.