Comparison of uncertainty propagation techniques in small-body environment

Abstract: Close-proximity exploration of small celestial bodies is crucial for the comprehensive and accurate characterization of their properties. However, the complex and uncertain dynamical environment around them contributes to a rapid dispersion of uncertainty and the emergence of non-Gaussian distributions. Therefore, to ensure safe operations, a precise understanding of uncertainty propagation becomes imperative. In this work, the dynamical environment is analyzed around two asteroids, Apophis, which will perform a close flyby to Earth in 2029, and Eros, which has been already explored by past missions. The performance of different uncertainty propagation methods (Linear Covariance Propagation, Unscented Transformation, and Polynomial Chaos Expansion) are compared in various scenarios of close-proximity operations around the two asteroids. Findings are discussed in terms of propagation accuracy and computational efficiency depending on the dynamical environment. By exploring these methodologies, this work contributes to the broader goal of ensuring the safety and effectiveness of spacecraft operations during close-proximity exploration of small celestial bodies.