Faith Believes, Hope Expects: The Impact of Calvin's Theology on the Mathematics of Chance

Abstract: This paper attributes the sudden emergence of mathematical probability and statistics in the second half of the seventeenth century to Calvin's Reformed theology. Calvin accommodated Epicurean chance with Stoic determinism and synthesised \emph{phronesis/prudentia}, founded personal experience and employed to deal with \emph{tyche/fortuna}, and \emph{episteme/scientia}, universal knowledge. This meant that matters of chance, which had previously been considered too particular for mathematical treatment, became part of \emph{episteme/scientia}. Clear evidence of the significance of Calvin in mathematics is in the facts that Huygens considered using the word 'hope' to describe mathematical expectation and French mathematics still uses \emph{esp\'erance} for mathematical expectation. Calvin asserted that Hope represented a universal, objective and indubitable idea making it characteristic of mathematics. The argument is built on a review of how the ideas of Hope, Faith and Prudence have evolved in European thought that highlights Calvin's innovations. The conclusion identifies contemporary issues in the application of mathematics in society that are illuminated in light of Calvin's doctrine.