A state-space catch-at-length assessment model for redfish on the Eastern Grand Bank of Newfoundland reveals large uncertainties in data and stock dynamics (2407.04799v1)

Abstract: We developed a state-space age-structured catch-at-length (ACL) assessment model for redfish in NAFO Divisions 3LN. The model was developed to address limitations in the surplus production model that was previously used to assess this stock. The ACL model included temporal variations in recruitment, growth, and mortality rates, which were limitations identified for the surplus production model. Our ACL model revealed some important discrepancies in survey and fishery length compositions. Our model also required large population dynamics process errors to achieve good fits to survey indices and catch estimates, which also demonstrated that additional understanding of these data and other model assumptions is required. As such, we do not propose the ACL model to provide management advice for 3LN redfish, but we do provide research recommendations that should provide a better basis to model the 3LN redfish stock dynamics. Recommendations include implementing sampling programs to determine redfish species/ecotypes in commercial and research survey catches and improving biological sampling for maturity and age.