An Application of Optimal Control Theory to R-Tipping

Abstract: An application of optimal control theory results in a lower bound on the speed $|\dot{\lambda}(t)|$ that must be attained at least once by any external forcing function that induces tipping in the asymptotically autonomous scalar ODE $\dot{x} = f(x+\lambda(t))$. The value of this critical speed depends on the total arclength $\int_{-\infty}^{\infty} |\dot{\lambda}(t)| dt$ of forcing, and may be interpreted as a safe threshold rate associated to each given arclength, such that if the speed of forcing remains everywhere slower than this, tipping cannot occur. The bound is tight in the sense that there exists a forcing function (continuous but non-smooth) which induces tipping, possesses the required arclength, and never exceeds the threshold speed. Further, the threshold speed is a strictly decreasing function of arclength, thus capturing the abstract trade off between how fast and how far of a minimal disturbance characterizes tipping.