A Characterization of Optimal Prediction Measures via $\ell_1$ Minimization

Abstract: Suppose that $K\subset\C$ is compact and that $z_0\in\C\backslash K$ is an external point. An optimal prediction measure for regression by polynomials of degree at most $n,$ is one for which the variance of the prediction at $z_0$ is as small as possible. Hoel and Levine (\cite{HL}) have considered the case of $K=[-1,1]$ and $z_0=x_0\in \R\backslash [-1,1],$ where they show that the support of the optimal measure is the $n+1$ extremme points of the Chebyshev polynomial $T_n(x)$ and characterizing the optimal weights in terms of absolute values of fundamental interpolating Lagrange polynomials. More recently, \cite{BLO} has given the equivalence of the optimal prediction problem with that of finding polynomials of extremal growth. They also study in detail the case of $K=[-1,1]$ and $z_0=ia\in i\R,$ purely imaginary. In this work we generalize the Hoel-Levine formula to the general case when the support of the optimal measure is a finite set and give a formula for the optimal weights in terms of a $\ell_1$ minimization problem.