Causal inference for disruption management in urban metro networks

Abstract: Urban metro systems can provide highly efficient and effective movements of vast passenger volumes in cities, but they are often affected by disruptions, causing delays, crowding, and ultimately a decline in passenger satisfaction and patronage. To manage and mitigate such adverse consequences, metro operators could benefit greatly from a quantitative understanding of the causal impact of disruptions. Such information would allow them to predict future delays, prepare effective recovery plans, and develop real-time information systems for passengers on trip re-routing options. In this paper, we develop a performance evaluation tool for metro operators that can quantify the causal effects of service disruptions on passenger flows, journey times, travel speeds and crowding densities. Our modelling framework is simple to implement, robust to statistical sources of bias, and can be used with high-frequency large-scale smart card data (over 4.85 million daily trips in our case) and train movement data. We recover disruption effects at the points of disruption (e.g. at disrupted stations) as well as spillover effects that propagate throughout the metro network. This allows us to deliver novel insights on the spatio-temporal propagation of delays in densely used urban public transport networks. We find robust empirical evidence that the causal impacts of disruptions adversely affect service quality throughout the network, in ways that would be hard to predict absent a causal model.