Adaptive Distributionally Robust Planning for Renewable-Powered Fast Charging Stations Under Decision-Dependent EV Diffusion Uncertainty

Abstract: When deploying fast charging stations (FCSs) to support long-distance trips of electric vehicles (EVs), there exist indirect network effects: while the gradual diffusion of EVs directly influences the timing and capacities of FCS allocation, the decisions for FCS allocations, in turn, impact the drivers' willingness to adopt EVs. This interplay, if neglected, can result in uncovered EVs and security issues on the grid side and even hinder the effective diffusion of EVs. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate this interdependence by quantifying EV adoption rates as decision-dependent uncertainties (DDUs) using decision-dependent ambiguity sets (DDASs). Then, a two-stage decision-dependent distributionally robust FCS planning (D$^3$R-FCSP) model is developed for adaptively deploying FCSs with on-site sources and expanding the coupled distribution network. A multi-period capacitated arc cover-path cover (MCACPC) model is incorporated to capture the EVs' recharging patterns to ensure the feasibility of FCS locations and capacities. To resolve the nonlinearity and nonconvexity, the D$^3$R-FCSP model is equivalently reformulated into a single-level mixed-integer linear programming by exploiting its strong duality and applying the McCormick envelope. Finally, case studies highlight the superior out-of-sample performances of our model in terms of security and cost-efficiency. Furthermore, the byproduct of accelerated EV adoption through an implicit positive feedback loop is highlighted.