The far-reaching effects of bombing on fertility in mid-20th century Japan

Abstract: This study explores the indirect impact of war damage on postwar fertility, with a specific focus on Japan's air raids during World War II. Using 1935 and 1947 Kinki region town/village data and city air raid damage information, we explored the "far-reaching effects" on fertility rates in nearby undamaged areas. Our fixed-effects model estimates show that air raids influenced postwar fertility within a 15-kilometer radius of the bombed cities. These impacts varied based on bombing intensity, showing both positive and negative effects. Moreover, a deeper analysis, using the Allied flight path as a natural experiment, indicates that air raid threats and associated fear led to increased postwar fertility, even in undamaged areas. This study highlights the relatively unexplored indirect consequences of war on fertility rates in neighboring regions and significantly contributes to the literature on the relationship between wars and fertility.