Chain effects of clean water: The Mills-Reincke phenomenon in early twentieth-century Japan

Abstract: This study explores the validity of chain effects of clean water, which are known as the "Mills-Reincke phenomenon," in early twentieth-century Japan. Recent studies have reported that water purifications systems are responsible for huge contributions to human capital. Although some studies have investigated the instantaneous effects of water-supply systems in pre-war Japan, little is known about the chain effects of these systems. By analyzing city-level cause-specific mortality data from 1922-1940, we find that a decline in typhoid deaths by one per 1,000 people decreased the risk of death due to non-waterborne diseases such as tuberculosis and pneumonia by 0.742-2.942 per 1,000 people. Our finding suggests that the observed Mills-Reincke phenomenon could have resulted in the relatively rapid decline in the mortality rate in early twentieth-century Japan.