On the Use of Generative Models in Observational Causal Analysis

Abstract: The use of a hypothetical generative model was been suggested for causal analysis of observational data. The very assumption of a particular model is a commitment to a certain set of variables and therefore to a certain set of possible causes. Estimating the joint probability distribution of can be useful for predicting values of variables in view of the observed values of others, but it is not sufficient for inferring causal relationships. The model describes a single observable distribution and cannot a chain of effects of intervention that deviate from the observed distribution.