SN2023ixf in Messier 101: A Variable Red Supergiant as the Progenitor Candidate to a Type II Supernova

Abstract: We present pre-explosion optical and infrared (IR) imaging at the site of the type II supernova (SN II) 2023ixf in Messier 101 at 6.9 Mpc. We astrometrically registered a ground-based image of SN 2023ixf to archival Hubble Space Telescope (HST), Spitzer Space Telescope (Spitzer), and ground-based near-IR images. A single point source is detected at a position consistent with the SN at wavelengths ranging from HST $R$-band to Spitzer 4.5 $\mu$m. Fitting to blackbody and red supergiant (RSG) spectral-energy distributions (SEDs), we find that the source is anomalously cool with a significant mid-IR excess. We interpret this SED as reprocessed emission in a 8600 $R_{\odot}$ circumstellar shell of dusty material with a mass $\sim$5$\times10^{-5} M_{\odot}$ surrounding a $\log(L/L_{\odot})=4.74\pm0.07$ and $T_{\rm eff}=3920\substack{+200\-160}$ K RSG. This luminosity is consistent with RSG models of initial mass 11 $M_{\odot}$, depending on assumptions of rotation and overshooting. In addition, the counterpart was significantly variable in pre-explosion Spitzer 3.6 $\mu$m and 4.5 $\mu$m imaging, exhibiting $\sim$70% variability in both bands correlated across 9 yr and 29 epochs of imaging. The variations appear to have a timescale of 2.8 yr, which is consistent with $\kappa$-mechanism pulsations observed in RSGs, albeit with a much larger amplitude than RSGs such as $\alpha$ Orionis (Betelgeuse).