Quantification of Residential Flexibility Potential using Global Forecasting Models

Abstract: This paper proposes a general and practical approach to estimate the economic benefits of optimally controlling deferrable loads in a Distribution System Operator's (DSO) grid, without relying on historical observations. We achieve this by learning the simulated response of flexible loads to random control signals, using a non-parametric global forecasting model. An optimal control policy is found by including the latter in an optimization problem. We apply this method to electric water heaters and heat pumps operated through ripple control and show how flexibility, including rebound effects, can be characterized and controlled. Finally, we show that the forecaster's accuracy is sufficient to completely bypass the simulations and directly use the forecaster to estimate the economic benefit of flexibility control.