A von Mises-Fisher Distribution for the Orbital Poles of the Plutinos

Abstract: Small solar system bodies have widely dispersed orbital poles, posing challenges to dynamical models of solar system origin and evolution. To characterize the orbit pole distribution of dynamical groups of small bodies it helps to have a functional form for a model of the distribution function. Previous studies have used the small-inclination approximation and adopted variations of the normal distribution to model orbital inclination dispersions. Because the orbital pole is a directional variable, its distribution can be more appropriately modeled with directional statistics. We describe the von Mises-Fisher (vMF) distribution on the surface of the unit sphere for application to small bodies' orbital poles. We apply it to the orbit pole distribution of the observed Plutinos. We find a mean pole located at inclination of 3.57 degrees and a longitude of ascending node of 124.38 degrees (in the J2000 reference frame), with a 99.7 per cent confidence cone of half-angle 1.68 degrees. We also estimate a debiased mean pole located 4.6 degrees away, at an inclination of 2.26 degrees and a longitude of ascending node of 292.69 degrees, of similar-size confidence cone. The vMF concentration parameter of Plutino inclinations (relative to either mean pole estimate) is 31.6. This resembles a Rayleigh distribution function with a width parameter of 10.2 degrees. Unlike previous models, the vMF model naturally accommodates all physical inclinations (and no others), whereas Rayleigh or Gaussian models must be truncated to the physical inclination range 0-180 degrees. Further work is needed to produce a theory for the mean pole of the Plutinos against which to compare the observational results.