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Can a single migrant per generation rescue a dying population?

Published 13 Apr 2023 in math.PR | (2304.06478v1)

Abstract: We introduce a population model to test the hypothesis that even a single migrant per generation may rescue a dying population. Let (ck)(c_k) be a sequence of real numbers in (0,1)(0,1). Let XnX_n be a size of the population at time n0n\geq 0. Then, Xn+1=XnYn+1+1X_{n+1}=X_n - Y_{n+1}+1, where the conditional distribution of Yn+1Y_{n+1} given Xn=kX_n=k is a binomial random variable with parameters (k,c(k))(k ,c(k)). We assume that limkkc(k)=ρ\lim_{k\to\infty}kc(k)=\rho exists. If $\rho<1$ the process is transient with speed 1ρ1-\rho (so yes a single migrant per generation may rescue a dying population!) and if $\rho>1$ the process is positive recurrent. In the critical case ρ=1\rho=1 the process is recurrent or transient according to how kc(k)k c(k) converges to $1$. When ρ=0\rho=0 and under some regularity conditions, the support of the increments is eventually finite.

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