Business-cycles and Cash-on-Market: Pre-money Startup Valuation in the Macroeconomic Environment

Abstract: How do business-cycles impact startup-valuations? While several studies explore VC startupecosystems and pre-money valuations, relatively-few delve deeper into the role of macro-level economic factors in influencing those startup deals valuations. Using a dataset of 1,089 venturecapital investments in European Union and European Economic Area markets, this article examines macroeconomic, cyclical and macro-sectoral influences on VC startups pre-money VC valuations. Our findings show that business-cycles impact startup-valuation both directly and indirectly. Beyond DCF factors, startup-valuations are impacted via by business-cycles directly, and via local venture-capital market-size. By using a Structural Equation Model approach, our findings contribute to entrepreneurship and financial-intermediary literature by exploring indirect and endogenous relationship possibilities finding that most determinants are transmission-channels rather than independent drivers. Our findings effectively tie-together startup-valuations, intermediary markets, and macroeconomic determinants.