Association of vaccine-induced or hybrid immunity with COVID-19-related mortality during the Omicron wave -- a retrospective observational study in elderly Bavarians

Abstract: Background: There is a lack of population-based studies on the effectiveness and durability of the SARS-CoV-2-induced immune protection during the Omicron wave. Methods: This retrospective study included 470 159 cases aged 60 years or older, who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between January 1 and June 30, 2022 in Bavaria, Germany. We examined time to death, measured from the earliest date of reporting/symptom onset until day 60. Cox models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for sex, age, earliest calendar date of documented infection, and level of vaccine-induced or hybrid immunity (LI). Results: We observed 3836 deaths (case fatality rate 0.82%). Risk of death was significantly lower in all LIs than in unvaccinated cases (adjusted HR for a full primary LI achieved within the last six months: 0.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.23-0.39; after six months: 0.46, 95% CI 0.35-0.60). Boosting further decreased the risk of death (within the last three months: HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.15-0.20; after three months: HR 0.25, 95% CI 0.21-0.29). Conclusion: In elderly Bavarians, an increasing LI was associated with an increasing protection against death during the Omicron wave. Protection, however, may decrease to some extent after several months.