Typical structure of sparse exponential random graph models

Abstract: We consider general Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs) where the sufficient statistics are functions of homomorphism counts for a fixed collection of simple graphs $F_k$. Whereas previous work has shown a degeneracy phenomenon in dense ERGMs, we show this can be cured by raising the sufficient statistics to a fractional power. We rigorously establish the na\"ive mean-field approximation for the partition function of the corresponding Gibbs measures, and in case of "ferromagnetic" models with vanishing edge density show that typical samples resemble a typical Erd\H{o}s--R\'enyi graph with a planted clique and/or a planted complete bipartite graph of appropriate sizes. We establish such behavior also for the conditional structure of the Erd\H{o}s--R\'enyi graph in the large deviations regime for excess $F_k$-homomorphism counts. These structural results are obtained by combining quantitative large deviation principles, established in previous works, with a novel stability form of a result of [5] on the asymptotic solution for the associated entropic variational problem. A technical ingredient of independent interest is a stability form of Finner's generalized H\"older inequality.