Singularity as a diagnostic for secondary eyewall occurrence in tropical cyclones

Abstract: Secondary eyewalls occur in 70% of major tropical cyclones (TCs), and are associated with rapid changes in storm intensity and rapid broadening of strong winds. While mechanisms of secondary eyewall formation have been investigated from various perspectives, the explicit conditions on which secondary eyewalls occur in TCs remain veiled, leaving substantial uncertainties in TC intensity forecast, especially for the most extreme events. In this study, we present a simple diagnostic, in form of a singularity, for secondary eyewall occurrence in TCs. The diagnostic is solely dependent on three basic storm characteristics (the maximum wind speed, the radius of maximum wind, and the latitude) and shown to compare well with satellite observations. It provides a valuable tool to improve the understanding, modeling and risk assessment of secondary eyewall storms.