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A Synthetic Prediction Market for Estimating Confidence in Published Work (2201.06924v1)
Published 23 Dec 2021 in cs.CY, cs.AI, cs.IR, cs.LG, and cs.MA
Abstract: Explainably estimating confidence in published scholarly work offers opportunity for faster and more robust scientific progress. We develop a synthetic prediction market to assess the credibility of published claims in the social and behavioral sciences literature. We demonstrate our system and detail our findings using a collection of known replication projects. We suggest that this work lays the foundation for a research agenda that creatively uses AI for peer review.