Asymptotically Optimal Sampling Policy for Selecting Top-m Alternatives

Abstract: We consider selecting the top-$m$ alternatives from a finite number of alternatives via Monte Carlo simulation. Under a Bayesian framework, we formulate the sampling decision as a stochastic dynamic programming problem, and develop a sequential sampling policy that maximizes a value function approximation one-step look ahead. To show the asymptotic optimality of the proposed procedure, the asymptotically optimal sampling ratios which optimize large deviations rate of the probability of false selection for selecting top-$m$ alternatives has been rigorously defined. The proposed sampling policy is not only proved to be consistent but also achieves the asymptotically optimal sampling ratios. Numerical experiments demonstrate superiority of the proposed allocation procedure over existing ones.