On the potential of sequential and non-sequential regression models for Sentinel-1-based biomass prediction in Tanzanian miombo forests

Abstract: This study derives regression models for above-ground biomass (AGB) estimation in miombo woodlands of Tanzania that utilise the high availability and low cost of Sentinel-1 data. The limited forest canopy penetration of C-band SAR sensors along with the sparseness of available ground truth restrict their usefulness in traditional AGB regression models. Therefore, we propose to use AGB predictions based on airborne laser scanning (ALS) data as a surrogate response variable for SAR data. This dramatically increases the available training data and opens for flexible regression models that capture fine-scale AGB dynamics. This becomes a sequential modelling approach, where the first regression stage has linked in situ data to ALS data and produced the AGB prediction map; We perform the subsequent stage, where this map is related to Sentinel-1 data. We develop a traditional, parametric regression model and alternative non-parametric models for this stage. The latter uses a conditional generative adversarial network (cGAN) to translate Sentinel-1 images into ALS-based AGB prediction maps. The convolution filters in the neural networks make them contextual. We compare the sequential models to traditional, non-sequential regression models, all trained on limited AGB ground reference data. Results show that our newly proposed non-sequential Sentinel-1-based regression model performs better quantitatively than the sequential models, but achieves less sensitivity to fine-scale AGB dynamics. The contextual cGAN-based sequential models best reproduce the distribution of ALS-based AGB predictions. They also reach a lower RMSE against in situ AGB data than the parametric sequential model, indicating a potential for further development.