Informed peer review for publication assessments: Are improved impact measures worth the hassle?

Abstract: In this work we ask whether and to what extent applying a predictor of publications' impact better than early citations, has an effect on the assessment of research performance of individual scientists. Specifically, we measure the total impact of Italian professors in the sciences and economics in a period of time, valuing their publications first by early citations and then by a weighted combination of early citations and impact factor of the hosting journal. As expected, scores and ranks by the two indicators show a very strong correlation, but there occur also significant shifts in many fields, mainly in Economics and statistics, and Mathematics and computer science. The higher the share of uncited professors in a field and the shorter the citation time window, the more recommendable the recourse to the above combination.