Dynamic estimation with random forests for discrete-time survival data

Abstract: Time-varying covariates are often available in survival studies and estimation of the hazard function needs to be updated as new information becomes available. In this paper, we investigate several different easy-to-implement ways that random forests can be used for dynamic estimation of the survival or hazard function from discrete-time survival data. The results from a simulation study indicate that all methods can perform well, and that none dominates the others. In general, situations that are more difficult from an estimation point of view (such as weaker signals and less data) favour a global fit, pooling over all time points, while situations that are easier from an estimation point of view (such as stronger signals and more data) favor local fits.