Transporting a prediction model for use in a new target population

Abstract: We consider methods for transporting a prediction model and assessing its performance for use in a new target population, when outcome and covariate information for model development is available from a simple random sample from the source population, but only covariate information is available on a simple random sample from the target population. We discuss how to tailor the prediction model for use in the target population, how to assess model performance in the target population (e.g., by estimating the target population mean squared error), and how to perform model and tuning parameter selection in the context of the target population. We provide identifiability results for the target population mean squared error of a potentially misspecified prediction model under a sampling design where the source study and the target population samples are obtained separately. We also introduce the concept of prediction error modifiers that can be used to reason about the need for tailoring measures of model performance to the target population and provide an illustration of the methods using simulated data.