Bayesian Analysis of Glucose Dynamics during the Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT)

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a model of the dynamics of the blood glucose level during an Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT). This dynamic includes the action of insulin and glucagon in the glucose homeostasis process as the reaction of an oral stimulus. We propose a Bayesian approach in the inference of five parameters related to insulin secretion, glucagon secretion, gastrointestinal emptying, and basal glucose level. Two insulin indicators related to the glucose level in blood and in the gastrointestinal tract allow us to suggest a classification for patients with impaired insulin sensitivity.