COVID-19 Epidemic in Mumbai: Projections, full economic opening, and containment zones versus contact tracing and testing: An Update

Abstract: Mumbai, amongst the most densely populated cities in the world, has witnessed the fourth largest number of cases and the largest number of deaths among all the cities in India (as of 28th October 2020). Along with the rest of India, lockdowns (of varying degrees) have been in effect in Mumbai since March 25, 2020. Given the large economic toll on the country from the lockdown and the related restrictions on mobility of people and goods, swift opening of the economy especially in a financial hub such as Mumbai becomes critical. In this report, we use the IISc-TIFR agent based simulator to develop long term projections for Mumbai under realistic scenarios related to Mumbai's opening of the workplaces, or equivalently, the economy, and the associated public transportation through local trains and buses. These projections were developed taking into account a possible second wave if the economy and the local trains are fully opened either on November 1, 2020 or on January 1, 2021. The impact on infection spread in Mumbai if the schools and colleges open on January first week 2021 is also considered. We also try to account for the increased intermingling amongst the population during the Ganeshotsav festival as well as around the Navratri/Dussehra and Diwali festival. Our conclusion, based on our simulations, is that the impact of fully opening up the economy on November 1 is manageable provided reasonable medical infrastructure is in place. Further, schools and colleges opening in January do not lead to excessive increase in infections. The report also explores the relative effectiveness of contact tracing vs containment zones, and also includes very rudimentary results of the effect of vaccinating the elderly population in February 2021.