Embedding calculus and grope cobordism of knots

Abstract: We show that embedding calculus invariants $ev_n$ are surjective for long knots in an arbitrary $3$-manifold. This solves some remaining open cases of Goodwillie--Klein--Weiss connectivity estimates, and at the same time confirms one half of the conjecture that for classical knots $ev_n$ are universal additive Vassiliev invariants over the integers. In addition, we give a sufficient condition for this conjecture to hold over a coefficient group, which is by recent results of Boavida de Brito and Horel fulfilled for the rationals and for the $p$-adic integers in a range. Therefore, embedding calculus invariants are strictly more powerful than the Kontsevich integral. Furthermore, our work shows they are more computable as well. Namely, the main theorem computes the first possibly non-vanishing invariant $ev_n$ of a knot which is grope cobordant to the unknot to be precisely equal to the equivalence class of the underlying decorated tree of the grope in the associated graph complex. Actually, our techniques apply beyond dimension $3$, offering a description of the layers in embedding calculus for long knots in a manifold of any dimension, and suggesting that certain generalised gropes realise the corresponding graph complex classes.