Hot Racquet or Not? An Exploration of Momentum in Grand Slam Tennis Matches

Abstract: The presence of momentum in sports, where the outcome of a previous event affects a following event, is a belief often held by fans, and has been the subject of statistical study for many sports. This paper investigates the presence and manifestation of momentum in Grand Slam tennis matches from 2014 through 2019 for men and women, to see if there is evidence of any carryover effect from the outcome of previous point(s)/game(s)/set(s) to the current one that cannot be accounted for by player quality, fitness or fatigue. Generalized linear mixed effect models (GLMMs) are used to explore the effects of the outcomes of previous sets, games, or points on the odds of winning a set, game, or point, while incorporating control variables that account for differences in player quality and the current status of the match. We find strong evidence of carryover effects at the set, game, and point level. Holding one's serve in prior service games is strongly related to winning a current game, but losing a past game is associated with higher estimated odds of winning the next game. Winning the previous two or three points in a row is associated with highest estimated odds of winning the next point.