Bayesian Beta-Binomial Prevalence Estimation Using an Imperfect Test

Abstract: Following [Diggle 2011, Greenland 1995], we give a simple formula for the Bayesian posterior density of a prevalence parameter based on unreliable testing of a population. This problem is of particular importance when the false positive test rate is close to the prevalence in the population being tested. An efficient Monte Carlo algorithm for approximating the posterior density is presented, and applied to estimating the Covid-19 infection rate in Santa Clara county, CA using the data reported in [Bendavid 2020]. We show that the true Bayesian posterior places considerably more mass near zero, resulting in a prevalence estimate of 5,000--70,000 infections (median: 42,000) (2.17% (95CI 0.27%--3.63%)), compared to the estimate of 48,000--81,000 infections derived in [Bendavid 2020] using the delta method. A demonstration, with code and additional examples, is available at testprev.com.