A presmoothing approach for estimation in semiparametric mixture cure models

Abstract: A challenge when dealing with survival analysis data is accounting for a cure fraction, meaning that some subjects will never experience the event of interest. Mixture cure models have been frequently used to estimate both the probability of being cured and the time to event for the susceptible subjects, by usually assuming a parametric (logistic) form of the incidence. We propose a new estimation procedure for a parametric cure rate that relies on a preliminary smooth estimator and is independent of the model assumed for the latency. We investigate the theoretical properties of the estimators and show through simulations that, in the logistic/Cox model, presmoothing leads to more accurate results compared to the maximum likelihood estimator. To illustrate the practical use, we apply the new estimation procedure to two studies of melanoma survival data.