DeepKriging: Spatially Dependent Deep Neural Networks for Spatial Prediction

Abstract: In spatial statistics, a common objective is to predict values of a spatial process at unobserved locations by exploiting spatial dependence. Kriging provides the best linear unbiased predictor using covariance functions and is often associated with Gaussian processes. However, when considering non-linear prediction for non-Gaussian and categorical data, the Kriging prediction is no longer optimal, and the associated variance is often overly optimistic. Although deep neural networks (DNNs) are widely used for general classification and prediction, they have not been studied thoroughly for data with spatial dependence. In this work, we propose a novel DNN structure for spatial prediction, where the spatial dependence is captured by adding an embedding layer of spatial coordinates with basis functions. We show in theory and simulation studies that the proposed DeepKriging method has a direct link to Kriging in the Gaussian case, and it has multiple advantages over Kriging for non-Gaussian and non-stationary data, i.e., it provides non-linear predictions and thus has smaller approximation errors, it does not require operations on covariance matrices and thus is scalable for large datasets, and with sufficiently many hidden neurons, it provides the optimal prediction in terms of model capacity. We further explore the possibility of quantifying prediction uncertainties based on density prediction without assuming any data distribution. Finally, we apply the method to predicting PM2.5 concentrations across the continental United States.