Dynamical Ising model of spatially-coupled ecological oscillators

Abstract: Long-range synchrony from short-range interactions is a familiar pattern in biological and physical systems, many of which share a common set of ``universal'' properties at the point of synchronization. Common biological systems of coupled oscillators have been shown to be members of the Ising universality class, meaning that the very simple Ising model replicates certain spatial statistics of these systems at stationarity. This observation is useful because it reveals which aspects of spatial pattern arise independently of the details governing local dynamics, resulting in both deeper understanding of and a simpler baseline model for biological synchrony. However, in many situations a system's dynamics are of greater interest than their static spatial properties. Here, we ask whether a dynamical Ising model can replicate universal and non-universal features of ecological systems, using noisy coupled metapopulation models with two-cycle dynamics as a case study. The standard Ising model makes unrealistic dynamical predictions, but the Ising model with memory corrects this by using an additional parameter to reflect the tendency for local dynamics to maintain their phase of oscillation. By fitting the two parameters of the Ising model with memory to simulated ecological dynamics, we assess the correspondence between the Ising and ecological models in several of their features (location of the critical boundary in parameter space between synchronous and asynchronous dynamics, probability of local phase changes, and ability to predict future dynamics). We find that the Ising model with memory is reasonably good at representing these properties of ecological metapopulations. The correspondence between these models creates the potential for the simple and well-known Ising class of models to become a valuable tool for understanding complex biological systems.