Merging sequential e-values via martingales
Abstract: We study the problem of merging sequential or independent e-values into one e-value or e-process. We describe a class of e-value merging functions via martingales and show that it dominates all merging methods for sequential e-values. All admissible methods for constructing e-processes can also be obtained in this way. In the case of merging independent e-values, the situation becomes much more complicated, and we provide a general class of such merging functions based on martingales applied to reordered data.
- Safe testing (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 2023. Forthcoming.
- Valid sequential inference on probability forecast performance. Biometrika, 109:647–663, 2022.
- Time-uniform, nonparametric, nonasymptotic confidence sequences. Annals of Statistics, 49:1055–1080, 2021.
- E-values as unnormalized weights in multiple testing. Biometrika, 2023. Forthcoming.
- Andrei N. Kolmogorov. On tables of random numbers. Sankhyā. Indian Journal of Statistics A, 25:369–376, 1963.
- Donald Loveland. The Kleene hierarchy classification of recursively random sequences. Transactions of the American Mathematical Society, 125:497–510, 1966.
- Donald Loveland. A new interpretation of the von Mises concept of random sequence. Zeitschrift für Mathematische Logik und Grundlagen der Mathematik, 12:279–294, 1966.
- Admissible anytime-valid sequential inference must rely on nonnegative martingales. Technical Report arXiv:2009.03167 [math.ST], arXiv.org e-Print archive, November 2022.
- Derandomized knockoffs: Leveraging e-values for false discovery rate control. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 2023. Forthcoming.
- Diffusions, Markov Processes, and Martingales. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, second edition, 2000.
- Glenn Shafer. Testing by betting: A strategy for statistical and scientific communication. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 184:407–431, 2021.
- Test martingales, Bayes factors, and p-values. Statistical Science, 26:84–101, 2011.
- Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance. Wiley, Hoboken, NJ, 2019.
- Jean Ville. Etude critique de la notion de collectif. Gauthier-Villars, Paris, 1939.
- Richard von Mises. Wahrscheinlichkeit, Statistik, und Wahrheit. Springer, Berlin, 1928. English translation: Probability, Statistics and Truth. William Hodge, London, 1939.
- Admissible ways of merging p-values under arbitrary dependence. Annals of Statistics, 50:351–375, 2022.
- E-values: Calibration, combination and applications. Annals of Statistics, 49:1736–1754, 2021.
- E-backtesting. Technical Report arXiv:2209.00991 [q-fin.RM], arXiv.org e-Print archive, August 2022.
- Ruodu Wang. Sum of arbitrarily dependent random variables. Electronic Journal of Probability, 19(84):1–18, 2014.
- False discovery rate control with e-values. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 84:822–852, 2022.
- Universal inference. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117:16880–16890, 2020.
Paper Prompts
Sign up for free to create and run prompts on this paper using GPT-5.
Top Community Prompts
Collections
Sign up for free to add this paper to one or more collections.