Local models for Galois deformation rings and applications

Abstract: We construct projective varieties in mixed characteristic whose singularities model, in generic cases, those of tamely potentially crystalline Galois deformation rings for unramified extensions of $\mathbb{Q}_p$ with small regular Hodge-Tate weights. We establish several significant facts about their geometry including a unibranch property at special points and a representation theoretic description of the irreducible components of their special fibers. We derive from these geometric results a number of local and global consequences: the Breuil-M\'ezard conjecture in arbitrary dimension for tamely potentially crystalline deformation rings with small Hodge-Tate weights (with appropriate genericity conditions), the weight part of Serre's conjecture for $U(n)$ as formulated by Herzig (for global Galois representations which satisfy the Taylor-Wiles hypotheses and are sufficiently generic at $p$), and an unconditional formulation of the weight part of Serre's conjecture for wildly ramified representations.